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CISA: expected late steel prices will fluctuate run

Date:2011-09-20 12:45

China Steel Industry Association released Sept. 20 monthly market analysis report pointed out, the latter country will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, demand is expected to continue to grow. However, due to maintain a high level of steel production, steel industry slowdown, weak international market demand, exports more difficult, the steel market is still difficult to reverse the oversupply, steel prices will continue fluctuating running posture.

Steel Association said that despite a moderate slowdown of the national economy, China will continue to maintain the macroeconomic policy continuity and stability; domestic steel market is expected to post demand was weakening trend, but is expected to continue to grow.

On the other hand, according to the China Steel Association statistics, this year from January to August, China's total imports of 448 million tons of iron ore, with an average CIF was $ 164.36 / ton, an increase of 37.5%. Imported iron ore prices due to extra expenditure of about 20 billion US dollars of foreign exchange, the increase of the steel industry costs by about 130 billion yuan. In addition, coal, electricity and other resources and energy prices, as well as capital and labor costs also showed an upward trend. Steel producers is expected to post costs will continue upward trend, steel prices have a supporting role.

As of the end of August, the country's 26 major steel market in five social stock of steel totaled 13.84 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, is the sixth consecutive month decline, but the decline qoq decreased. Enter September, steel inventories rise, to the second week in September, rose to 14.04 million tons of steel stocks, has risen 1.48 percent compared with the end of August.

In early September to the end of long steel stocks increase significantly, rebar inventories increased by 2.12%, wire inventory increase of 3.58%; the increase is relatively small sheet, plate rose 1.88 percent, 1.05 percent rise in hot rolled, cold-rolled sheet fell 1.26%. China Steel Association believes that the market sentiment rising inventories increased, the intensity of steel consumption declined.

On Hind, the report further noted that the current steel production capacity release quickly, while fixed asset investment growth rate down, a decrease in new projects, construction, machinery, shipbuilding, automotive and other industries by the rapid growth into the stable period of development, downstream steel industry demand weakening, coupled with the weak international market demand for steel exports showed strength and a downward trend. Iron and steel enterprises should pay close attention to changes in market demand, reasonable organization of production and sales.

In addition, in early September, US President Barack Obama announced a total of $ 447 billion job stimulus plan, the quantitative easing policy will lead to dollar continues to depreciate, the RMB will continue to appreciate the situation. January to August this year, the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated 3.55%. China Steel Association expects the late iron and steel enterprises steel exports have increased the difficulty will be further.

From the international situation, global liquidity situation easing difficult to change in the short term, the international market is still high commodity prices, imported inflation is not significantly reduced impact. Since inflation is expected to further increase the pressure at home and abroad, the latter will continue to tighten monetary policy situation.

On view in August, the report shows, the month the major steel industry continues to maintain a rapid growth, while iron ore and other raw materials and fuel prices continue to rise, further pushing up the cost of steel, the steel price presented as slightly rising trend, but due to lower industry demand slowdown, steel prices showed a slight fluctuations.

As of the end of August, CISA CSPI steel composite price index was 135.23 points, an increase of 14.72 percent, an increase of 0.44% qoq. Wherein, CSPI index for long products 143.37 points, an increase of 18.55 percent, an increase of 0.66% MoM; plate index was 130.35 points, an increase of 11.80 percent, an increase of 0.42% qoq.

Variety of view points, eight varieties of steel Steel Association monitored the same period, in addition to maintaining a smooth outer seamless steel have risen. Longs in the high line, rebar and angles price increases were 1.87%, 0.02% and 0.75%; except hot rolled sheet continues to rise 0.34 percent, the plate, cold-rolled sheet and galvanized sheet by lowering transfer liter, an increase of 0.47%, respectively, 1.15% and 0.61%; hot-rolled seamless pipe prices remain stable.

TypeInfo: Industry News

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